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| Lynam, Timothy; Tropical Resource Ecology Program, University of Zimbabwe; tlynam@science.uz.ac.zw; Bousquet, Francois; CIRAD Tera; bousquet@cirad.fr; Le Page, Christophe; CIRAD Tera; lepage@cirad.fr; d'Aquino, P.; CIRAD Tera; daquino@telecomplus.sn; Barreteau, Olivier; Cemagref Division Irrigation; barreteau@montpellier.cemagref.fr; Chinembiri, Frank C; Agritex;; Mombeshora, Bright; ;. |
| Two case studies are presented in which models were used as focal tools in problems associated with common-pool resource management in developing countries. In the first case study, based in Zimbabwe, Bayesian or Belief Networks were used in a project designed to enhance the adaptive management capacity of a community in a semiarid rangeland system. In the second case study, based in Senegal, multi-agent systems models were used in the context of role plays to communicate research findings to a community, as well as to explore policies for improved management of rangelands and arable lands over which herders and farmers were in conflict. The paper provides examples of the use of computer-based modeling with stakeholders who had limited experience with... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Bayesian belief networks; Developing country; Dynamic modeling; Multi-agent systems; Participatory modeling; Semiarid rangeland; Senegal; Spidergrams; Zimbabwe. |
| Ano: 2002 |
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| Marcot, Bruce G; USDA Forest Service; bmarcot@fs.fed.us. |
| The Northwest Forest Plan in the Pacific Northwest, United States includes directives for survey and site protection of hundreds of rare species across many taxonomic classes. To help direct survey activities, prioritize sites, and stand conditions for conservation of these species, I developed Bayesian belief network (BBN) models of habitat relationships and multiple stressors predicting presence of 12 rare species, and I present an example of predicting presence and absence of a rare fungus. The BBN models are developed along a rigorous process of expert judgment, peer review, reconciliation, accuracy testing, and incremental updating with known site data and validation data. Management implications of prediction errors are discussed. |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Bayesian belief networks; Bridgeoporus nobilissimus; Model validation; Northwest Forest Plan; Rare species models; Pacific Northwest.. |
| Ano: 2006 |
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| Kulmala, Soile; Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute; MTT Agrifood Research, Finland; Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute; soile.kulmala@ymparisto.fi; Kuikka, Sakari; Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki; sakari.kuikka@helsinki.fi. |
| It has been acknowledged that natural sciences alone cannot provide an adequate basis for the management of complex environmental problems. The scientific knowledge base has to be expanded in a more holistic direction by incorporating social and economic issues. As well, the multifaceted knowledge has to be summarized in a form that can support science-based decision making. This is, however, difficult. Interdisciplinary skills, practices, and methodologies are needed that enable the integration of knowledge from conceptually different disciplines. Through a focus on our research process, we analyzed how and what kind of interdisciplinarity between natural scientists, environmental economists, and social scientists grew from the need to better understand... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Baltic Sea salmon fisheries; Bayesian belief networks; Bioeconomic modeling; Integrated model; Interdisciplinarity interdisciplinary learning; Fisheries research; Methodological epochè ; Multidisciplinarity. |
| Ano: 2012 |
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| Aalders, Inge; Macaulay Institute; j.morrice@macaulay.ac.uk. |
| The ability to incorporate and manage the different drivers of land-use change in a modeling process is one of the key challenges because they are complex and are both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This paper uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to incorporate characteristics of land managers in the modeling process and to enhance our understanding of land-use change based on the limited and disparate sources of information. One of the two models based on spatial data represented land managers in the form of a quantitative variable, the area of individual holdings, whereas the other model included qualitative data from a survey of land managers. Random samples from the spatial data provided evidence of the relationship between the different... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Bayesian belief networks; Land cover; Land use. |
| Ano: 2008 |
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